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Hierarchy of Certainty

2/6/2013

9 Comments

 
Along the lines of Abraham Maslow's hierarchy of needs in the field of psychology, I've come up with a Hierarchy of Certainty in science. The certainty of  being able to accurately and truthfully state something increases as  more and more supporting evidence is discovered. Logical, right? The more support there is, the more likely it is to be accurate and factual. In other words, as more evidence supports an assertion, that assertion is more and more likely to be correct. In science, this IS science. However, if any evidence is discovered that refutes, or doesn't amply support an assertion, the assertion is changed until the statement one makes can support ALL the evidence. This is also science. A single supporting observation is nice, a million of them is virtually unassailable. 

At each step along the way, the certainty of stating the situation as fact increases until you reach the top, when you can state with certainty. At the pinnacle of the Hierarchy of Certainty  in science is the Scientific Theory. A person can - with all the power of SCIENCE! behind him or her - state a scientific theory as fact.
Picture
The development of a scientific theory follows this sort of path (Grossly simplified, I know.):

Someone has an idea and they form a hypothesis*. They then make a prediction, and create methods to analyze and test. If the hypothesis or prediction fails in the testing or the analysis proves either incorrect, the hypothesis and/or prediction gets refined to support the evidence and analysis. Or in the more egregious failures, hypotheses and predictions get completely tossed, and the process starts anew. 

After rigorous testing, and the resulting measurable, repeatable and objective evidence is compiled, a scientific law* is formulated.

After one or more laws are established, a means of explaining the law(s) is formulated. THIS IS THE THEORY.

A scientific theory is "a well-substantiated explanation of some aspect of the natural world, based on a body of facts that have been repeatedly confirmed through observation and experiment."
 As a result, scientific theory sits at the top of the Hierarchy of Certainty,  be it the Cell Theory, the Big Bang or the Evolution or any other. Statements along the lines of "I can't go along with evolution, it's just a theory, after all." are as ridiculous as stating "I just can't believe gravity works. It's just a theory." and stepping off the roof of a 10 story building and not expecting the inevitable. They're both scientific theories - equal in their assertions as can be made given all the evidence. 
(Note there is a BIG difference in definition of a scientific theory and the word "theory" as a general-use thing.)
Despite a theory being at the top of the Hierarchy, it doesn't mean it cannot be assailed and or refined. It means that given all the knowledge of the topic, that is what best describes the circumstances. A number of theories have fallen by the wayside as more information was obtained that eventually superseded the theory such as the Geocentric Theory, the Flat Earth Theory or biological Spontaneous Generation.

Who knows, all our current theories might be tossed out as new scientific methods are created to test them. Though, the progression (as far as I know) is that they are getting more and more support as testing methods are created and made more sensitive.

*A scientific hypothesis is a proposed explanation of a phenomenon which still has to be rigorously tested.
**A scientific law is a distillation of the results of repeated observation.
9 Comments
Jeffrey Smith link
2/7/2013 12:55:40 am

I really like your take on this and the way you go about explaining the idea, but even more exciting is your statement about scientific theory and the general use term, "theory". I will use that in the future, thanks!

Reply
Steve
2/10/2013 12:57:38 am

Thanks Jeff!

Reply
Samir Schneid
10/9/2019 06:07:22 am

For sure. It is an amazing text and the best statement was about "theory" and "scientific theory". That will be required reading to my students. Thank you so much.

Reply
Tammy Salyer link
2/7/2013 08:20:54 am

Well said, Slang! BTW, if you do decide to write your opus, Maslow's hierarchy is a great tool for developing character conflict.

Reply
MEB
2/9/2013 01:08:04 pm

I don't like the way the term "science" has been diluted over the last 80 years. Science puts people on the moon, invents new medicines and creates the nifty iPad I'm typing on. As stated, scientific method is observable, measurable and repeatable.

Deduction might inform hypothesis for scientific method, but deduction is not science. Theory is deduction based upon available data. Change the available data and the theory can change too. But the science of gun powder does not change as more elements are discovered.

Gravity, while observable indirectly, is predictable and measurable. Gravity is not fully explained yet and is categorized as a weak nuclear force. But I don't believe gravity is considered a theory.

By definition of scientific method, archeology, origin of species, Big Bang etc. are not science because there are no repeatable rigors to verify. Only available information and deduction. While not insignificant or trivial, putting them in the same category as science dilutes what science really is. And then, when theory changes based on new info, the reputation of science suffers because by association, it's not absolute.

Reply
Steve
2/10/2013 12:57:02 am

Thanks for your comments!
And now, my comments on your comments. :-)

“Science puts people on the moon, invents new medicines…” I must disagree. The *application* of scientific discoveries through medicine, technology and engineering does that. Science is "the study of the world around us in an attempt to understand and describe it." (My own words.) That's it. There are no absolutes in science, and by its ability to be changed as new information is obtained, makes it far stronger, not suffer because it.

As for your stated disbelief in gravity being considered a theory, a quick Google search will put to rest your misgivings. It is considered a scientific theory with several laws supporting it. The weak nuclear force is not gravity, though it is one of the four fundamental forces of nature, alongside the strong nuclear force, electromagnetism, and gravity. I agree with you that gravity is not completely understood. As more information becomes available, if necessary, the theory will be modified to account for it. If such information comes about that refutes it, It *will* be discarded. That's science.

Big Bang theory components are testable and observable.

By origin of species I am assuming you mean abiogenesis – for which there are no scientific theories that I know of because we don't have enough knowledge about it yet.

As for archeology, it is the study of human activities in the past, and again, as far as I know, there are no scientific theories tied to it.

Steve

Reply
MEB
2/10/2013 05:37:00 am

Ok, application. Very true. And again on gravity. Elements of the Big Bang are also very testable. However, there are very wide swaths of assumption that the framework is built upon. I have no problems with the assumptions either because theory is broken down into its constituent parts to test.

For the areas you respond with "no theory" that is also true. However, when new insights or discoveries are made in those areas, it is always reported as "scientists report" or "scientists have discovered new..." when there is no actual science taking place. That is what I have issues with. Now if was listed as "researchers", I'd have no problem.

Science and scientists should vigilant in guarding its reputation because increasingly, the American Idol watching public doesn't make those distinctions. In my opinion, science and scientific method should be beyond reproach, always. Many times, the media makes no distinctions, instead, grouping anybody with a college degree who is making a discovery as a scientist. Example? The doctor that falsely reported inoculations causing autism. The garbage was initially listed as scientific discoveries and was perpetuated for a number of years.

I'm a grouch today.

Reply
Steve
2/10/2013 06:04:17 am

You'll get no argument from me about how scientific activity and research is reported in our American-Idol society. Unfortunately, the majority of the "news" is no longer news, it's either titillation and sensationalism or thinly disguised commercialism and/or propaganda. The mistakes made in science reporting are as appalling as they are numerous. I don't have a solution as to how to keep the reporting accurate, and, I'm guessing, you don't either.

Cheer up, tomorrow's Monday. :-)

Reply
MEB
2/10/2013 07:19:34 am

Oh, the answer is simple. Install us as benevolent dictators of media programming. All in favor, signify by saying aye.

Reply



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