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American Cities Teetering On The Edge

3/7/2012

1 Comment

 
I don't know about you, but this list from Business Insider indicates to me that things aren't quite as rosy as the market pundits would want us to believe. Call me a cynic, but I think they want us little investors to keep pumping our money in, while they rake off the creamy profits while our hard-earned cash pushes up prices. 

Then, when it truly becomes untenable, they'll already have their money out, while we take it in the shorts (no investing pun intended).

If your city is on the list, you have my sympathy. Though Chicago is not on the list, they bankrupted the future to pay for today.
In descending order, I give you the Ignominious Sixteen. And for you Detroit-bashers out there (that seems to be a sport), it is on the list, but not even top 5.

Without further ado:


16. San Diego, CA
Deficit through June 2012 : $73 million
Budget in FY2011:$2.85 billion

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/americas-most-bankrupt-cities-2010-12#san-diego-calif-1#ixzz1oRiuqRt8

15. New York City, NY
Deficit through June 2012: $2 billion
Budget in FY2010: $63.1 billion
Annualized gap: 2.1%
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/americas-most-bankrupt-cities-2010-12#new-york-city-2#ixzz1oRiomgEe

14. San Jose, CA
Deficit through June 2012: $90 million
Budget in FY2010: $2.7 billion
Annualized gap: 2.2%
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/americas-most-bankrupt-cities-2010-12#san-jose-calif-3#ixzz1oRizvh6W

13. Cincinnati, OH
Deficit through December 2012: $60 million
Biennial budget FY2009/2010:$2.5 billion
Annualized gap: 2.4%
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/americas-most-bankrupt-cities-2010-12#cincinnati-ohio-4#ixzz1oRj49UpM

12. Honolulu, HI
Deficit through June 2012: $100 million
Budget in FY2011:$1.8 billion
Annualized gap: 3.7%
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/americas-most-bankrupt-cities-2010-12#honolulu-hawaii-5#ixzz1oRj9W01S

11. San Francisco, CA
Deficit through June 2012: $380 million
Budget in FY2011: $6.55 billion
Annualized gap: 3.9%
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/americas-most-bankrupt-cities-2010-12#san-francisco-calif-6#ixzz1oRjHgawZ

10. Los Angeles, CA
Deficit through June 2012: $438 million
Budget in FY2011: $6.7 billion
Annualized gap: 4.4%
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/americas-most-bankrupt-cities-2010-12#los-angeles-calif-7#ixzz1oRjLxjg4

9. Washington, D.C.
Deficit through September 2012: $688 million
Budget in FY2011: $8.89 billion
Annualized gap: 4.4%
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/americas-most-bankrupt-cities-2010-12#washington-dc-8#ixzz1oRjUsBru

8. Newark, NJ
Deficit through December 2011: $30.5 million
Budget in FY2010: $677 million
Annualized gap: 4.5%
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/americas-most-bankrupt-cities-2010-12#newark-nj-9#ixzz1oRjam1Es

7. Detroit, MI
Deficit through June 2011: $85 million
Budget in FY2011: $3.1 billion
Annualized gap: 5.5%
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/americas-most-bankrupt-cities-2010-12#detroit-mich-10#ixzz1oRjpzS2I

6. Reading, PA
Deficit through December 2011: $7.5 million
Budget in FY2010:$120 million
Annualized gap: 6.3%
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/americas-most-bankrupt-cities-2010-12#reading-penn-11#ixzz1oRjvHW4d

5. Joliett, IL
Deficit through December 2011: $21 million
Budget in FY2010: $274 million
Annualized gap: 7.7%
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/americas-most-bankrupt-cities-2010-12#joliet-ill-12#ixzz1oRk0ZxB7

4. Camden, NJ
Deficit through December 2011: $26.5 million
Budget in FY2010:$178 million
Annualized gap: 15%
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/americas-most-bankrupt-cities-2010-12#camden-nj-13#ixzz1oRk8yTSI

3. Hamtramck, MI
Deficit through June 2012: $4.7 million
Budget in FY2011: $18 million
Annualized gap: 17%
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/americas-most-bankrupt-cities-2010-12#hamtramck-mich-14#ixzz1oRkDi7yh

2. Central Falls, RI
Deficit through June 2012: $7 million
Budget in FY2011:$21 million
Annualized gap: 22%
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/americas-most-bankrupt-cities-2010-12#central-falls-ri-15#ixzz1oRkK6WuQ

1. Paterson, NJ
Deficit through December 2011: $54 million
Budget for FY2010:$225 million
Annualized gap: 24%
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/americas-most-bankrupt-cities-2010-12#paterson-nj-16#ixzz1oRkSuY2P

1 Comment

Market Peak?

2/22/2012

0 Comments

 
I'm calling the Dow Industrial Average's top of 13000 yesterday the peak. I think it's downhill from here. When some well known and respected companies are trading at insane P/E ratios (Amazon: AMZN) compared to the historical standard of 15, other companies are paying out more in dividend than they are making — also with a surprising P/E (AT&T: T), Europe is bleeding money south to Greece to support, well, I don't know, a vacation destination?, production indices (here & here are a couple) heading south, and the entire world is awash in staggering debt. I don't think the run up from October is sustainable in either the short or long term. 

Then again, I though it was going to happen last fall, too. I guess a blind man with a hammer finds a squirrel with a nut pounding on a thousand keyboards for a thousand hours to generate a Shakespearean sonnet once in a while. Or something.
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Groupon, thank you!

11/22/2011

1 Comment

 
Yesterday, I bought the December puts on Groupon (GRPN) at a strike price of .35. Today, I sold them for $1.15. Thanks Groupon for being such a dog! I know there are some that will chide me for not holding longer for a better price, because, let's face it, Groupon is a dog. 
I'm not greedy. And, since it will likely rebound in the short term, I'll buy them (or others) again when the rebound hits. 
1 Comment

Still Not Running...

10/16/2010

0 Comments

 
Since the last post, my running has suffered greatly. A series of injuries and overuse issues has cut my weekly mileage from 35-40 to about 3. Yes, that's a single digit less than 5. Sigh.
The waiting for the healing is the hardest part, and the fact that I am no longer a strapping 20-something makes the waiting period even longer. Compounding that is my impatience and "trial" runs that only appear to set me back. As I write this, I can't even walk without pain. I'm 90% confident of my self-diagnosis of peroneal tendonitis. The nagging 10% left has almost convinced me to go see a doctor, to rule out tears in the tendon or ligaments in the area, since I did roll the damn thing a couple of times since the tendonitis set in 6 months ago.

Regarding the market: buy it. It may dip on a pre-election low, but it'll only go higher after that.
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Economy update: Inauguration Day 2009

1/20/2009

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Back in October (on the 29th, at 1:34 pm PST, to be precise) I made the following prediction via a twitter feed (slang4201):
"Expecting 12-18% pop in the market between now and next wed if Obama wins. 3-7% on a McCain win. After that, 20% drop by Mar 1 for either. "

Let's see how it is panning out so far, shall we?

On October 29, 2008 - the day I made my prediction - the S&P 500 closed at 930.09.

On the Wednesday following the inauguration (November 5), the S&P opened at 1005.75: an increase of 8.1% Not quite the pop I anticipated with an Obama victory, but still not too shabby for a week's gain.

Continuing on...

Today, January 20, 2009, the S&P closed at 805.22, reflecting a 15.5% drop from October 29, and a 24.9% (shall we just call it 25%) drop from the high open on November 5.

O_O

With the news coming out just getting <sarcasm> better and better </sarcasm>, I think I may have to revise my original prediction for March 1.

Let's see... 805 now, State Street just now releasing information relating to their financial shenanigans, Bank of America in deep doo-doo, Wells Fargo so in debt it's not funny... Looks like Oil company windfall profits are about to get taken away. That should provide some additional income into the coffers of the Treasury, but it will decrease the stock values.

Shall we call 650 in the S&P by March 1? When we hit that, we may see some bear market rallies that can make the savvy investor some lucre, but be cautious, since we aren't at the bottom yet.

Those who called the bottom of the DEPRESSION  - yes, I used the word - recently (I'm looking at you Scott Adams) are deluding yourselves. It will take a year to 18 months just to get all the bad news out. Only then can we start to recover.

0 Comments

Thoughts on the economy and market

12/26/2008

0 Comments

 

    Despite the recent gains in the market since the lows in late October and early November, I don't see any good news coming out of the big retail season, nor anything good in the jobs market or real estate, or, for that matter any aspect of the US economy. 

    I am no money manager (except for my household finances), nor am I a trained economist, financial advisor or affiliated with any particular aspect of the financial community. I am, however, interested in the market, how it functions, and how best to profit from it.

    I am still learning to read candlesticks, waves and other patterns in the market, and am listening to others in the financial fields as to what they think is going on. However, I have a hard time believing a lot of the talking heads on TV consistently telling us that the lows have been reached and the economy is certainly on the rebound and that we should be keeping our money where it is.


   Each of the last three week's closing prices on SPY have been lower than the previous one - a strong bear indicator. This has been the pattern over the last month despite the government's attempts to reinvigorate the economy with interest rate cuts.


    Unfortunately, there isn't much more in the government's arsenal at the moment they can use to give the economy a kick in the shorts, and with that wad shot, what's left? Not much, with the exception of real economic change - and that's not something that can happen quickly. I see a FDR-esque Obama-deal coming. Combine that with realistic spending and saving habits of Americans and letting archaic businesses go the way of the dodo, things may come around in a year or so.


   As for bailing out various industries that are "too big to fail," if they are too big to fail, then they should be a part of the government or at the very least subject to intense regulation and scrutiny. The bailout should be a buyout where the taxpayers become the owners and any profits are provided back to them. In the process, all existing contracts - including those with the labor unions - become null and void and subject to immediate renegotiation. Executives are paid at the rate of a government civil servant. If they leave, so what? What exceptional abilities did they show when they were busy driving the company into the ground, while collecting obscene bonuses and "retention incentives" to stay at their jobs? I could do the job at less than half the price. Any takers?

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    Just a guy out exploring the world. Former world-class never-was endurance runner.

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