Back in October (on the 29th, at 1:34 pm PST, to be precise) I made the following prediction via a twitter feed (slang4201):
"Expecting 12-18% pop in the market between now and next wed if Obama wins. 3-7% on a McCain win. After that, 20% drop by Mar 1 for either. "
Let's see how it is panning out so far, shall we?
On October 29, 2008 - the day I made my prediction - the S&P 500 closed at 930.09.
On the Wednesday following the inauguration (November 5), the S&P opened at 1005.75: an increase of 8.1% Not quite the pop I anticipated with an Obama victory, but still not too shabby for a week's gain.
Continuing on...
Today, January 20, 2009, the S&P closed at 805.22, reflecting a 15.5% drop from October 29, and a 24.9% (shall we just call it 25%) drop from the high open on November 5.
O_O
With the news coming out just getting <sarcasm> better and better </sarcasm>, I think I may have to revise my original prediction for March 1.
Let's see... 805 now, State Street just now releasing information relating to their financial shenanigans, Bank of America in deep doo-doo, Wells Fargo so in debt it's not funny... Looks like Oil company windfall profits are about to get taken away. That should provide some additional income into the coffers of the Treasury, but it will decrease the stock values.
Shall we call 650 in the S&P by March 1? When we hit that, we may see some bear market rallies that can make the savvy investor some lucre, but be cautious, since we aren't at the bottom yet.
Those who called the bottom of the DEPRESSION - yes, I used the word - recently (I'm looking at you Scott Adams) are deluding yourselves. It will take a year to 18 months just to get all the bad news out. Only then can we start to recover.
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AuthorJust a guy out exploring the world. Former world-class never-was endurance runner. Archives
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