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Market Peak?

2/22/2012

I'm calling the Dow Industrial Average's top of 13000 yesterday the peak. I think it's downhill from here. When some well known and respected companies are trading at insane P/E ratios (Amazon: AMZN) compared to the historical standard of 15, other companies are paying out more in dividend than they are making — also with a surprising P/E (AT&T: T), Europe is bleeding money south to Greece to support, well, I don't know, a vacation destination?, production indices (here & here are a couple) heading south, and the entire world is awash in staggering debt. I don't think the run up from October is sustainable in either the short or long term.

Then again, I though it was going to happen last fall, too. I guess a blind man with a hammer finds a squirrel with a nut pounding on a thousand keyboards for a thousand hours to generate a Shakespearean sonnet once in a while. Or something.

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Groupon, thank you!

11/22/2011

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Yesterday, I bought the December puts on Groupon (GRPN) at a strike price of .35. Today, I sold them for $1.15. Thanks Groupon for being such a dog! I know there are some that will chide me for not holding longer for a better price, because, let's face it, Groupon is a dog.
I'm not greedy. And, since it will likely rebound in the short term, I'll buy them (or others) again when the rebound hits.

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Europe's Economic Woes Explained

11/3/2011

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This is the best explanation of the economic problems facing Europe. Worth every second of the 2:45 it takes to watch it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOzR3UAyXao

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Is Netflix is a harbinger of things to come?

10/25/2011

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In early October, the stock market appear to hit a nadir and has been on a significant upswing for the month. I would call it a nice bear market rally, that will not hold. In that vein, I think the collapse (I think that is a fair assumption for a 35% overnight drop in valuation) of Netflix (NFLX) last night will be the first in a series of large downward steps for the overall market.
The irrational exuberance of the market in October with the European financial situation acting as the sword of Damocles dangling overhead is just that: irrational.
There are a couple things I would have done differently:
1. The NFLX puts I bought in April with an October 2011 expiration, I would have kept through the August swoon. Though I made 300% on them, hanging on through the debacle of splitting the streaming from disc delivery services, the instantiation and subsequent near-immediate "do-over" call of Quickster, would have netted me a lot more.
2. I would have waited a bit longer buying the puts for next spring, in order to get a better price. For the record, I am holding puts on QQQ for Nov 2011, GLD in March, CELG for April and WFM for May.
Though I think a long drop is in store, I am long a number of speculative stocks (LDK, BTX, SNMX, SRZ), and am mostly in cash. Of the stocks I am holding, I sold the calls on one, and am waiting for additional drops to add to more of the others. Looking at their ticker symbols, I guess I like the ones with X and Z in them.
We'll see how I do.

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Market Peak?

Groupon, thank you!

Europe's Economic Woes Explained

Is Netflix is a harbinger of things to come?

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